In the last article, I took a look at Clallam County as a bellwether during Election 2020. Today we’ll look at the Latino vote for Trump and determine whether it too is indicative of a larger truth.
Nineteen counties, acting as bellwethers, have “selected” each president since 1980. Clallam was the only one of the 19 that voted for Biden. I concluded that Americans who voted for Biden but couldn’t admit that Clallam may have been a one-off — pointing to overwhelming evidence that the other 18 pointed to a Trump landslide — was indicative of a mental disorder.
I am intentionally leaving off the quotation marks around mental disorder, and I’m coining “Logic Dysphoria” — which does get quote marks, because I’m only here making it a thing — because there’s no other explanation for how Biden voters can ignore the facts of Election 2020 other than that an emotional tyranny has taken hold of them, causing a severe blindness that under extreme conditions may lead to the fatal deterioration of the pre-frontal cortex.
Why should we care about the Latino vote?
There are several compelling reasons why this year, in particular, it’s worth looking at the Latino vote in general and specifically for Trump. These reasons show how Trump won and underscore how Trump haters (otherwise known as Biden voters) can ignore the facts.
- Latinos have been seen in the past as a monolithic group voting for Democrats. Not so much, perhaps, as blacks being monolithic due to Democrats conveniently casting the GOP as racist and the GOP not correcting the record until Trump came into office.
- White non-Hispanic voters (whites) view all “Latinos” as the same. I.e. we often see Latino voters in Miami-Dade (heavily Cuban) the same as we would Puerto Ricans in New York City or Mexicans in El Paso and the same as Spanish citizens having become naturalized citizens. (And we would likely misidentify Filipinos in San Francisco as latino.) Each group, and each member of each group, has different reasons for voting for a candidate. This still surprises many white voters. How do I know this? Because there is deep denial that blacks vote differently, and there is also black-on-black pressure: blacks call blacks who vote for Trump “Uncle Tom,” “sellout” or “coon.”
- The difference between the Latino vote for Trump in 2016 versus this election is significant both in outcome and also as an indicator of a larger reality: that Trump won in a landslide.
A comparison of 2016 and 2020
We need only look at Miami-Dade County in Florida and Starr County in Texas to get a quick overview of how the forward movement to Trump of these areas point to a larger trend.
Two other counties — Orange in CA and Dixon in NE — are instructive.
Florida flipped from Democrat in 2012 to Republican in 2016 with Trump’s win. We recall that Florida’s been a key state for twenty years, since Bush v. Gore, but Trump won convincingly.
Obama won Florida over Romney 50% to 49%, so it was close. Trump beat Clinton also by one point, but with a plurality (49% to 48%) with Johnson getting 2% and others rounding it out.
Miami-Dade has been solidly blue, and Clinton beat Trump there better than Obama beat Romney in 2012.
But as you can see, while Clinton beat Trump 63% to 34%, Biden beat Trump by only 53% to 46%. Trump gained 11 points which included one of Johnson’s from 2016; Biden lost 10 points. This was a 21 point swing.
There are 50 million Hispanic citizens in the U.S., with 27 million eligible to vote. In Florida, USA Today cited a poll that likely Hispanic voters showed a Biden edge, but the undecided group were eventually split between the candidates.
The article also said that among Cuban voters, Trump held an almost 50-point lead over Biden (71% to 23%).
Of the Top 20 counties with the highest percentage of Latinos, all but three are in Texas. Starr County in Texas the “most Latino” county in the country.
Obama beat Romney in Starr County handily by 86% to 13%. Trump ate into that a bit in 2016: Clinton won 80% to 19%, but it was a 12-point swing. Swings like that in states indicate landslide victories.
But this year, something very different happened. Biden’s relatively nominal win of five points over Trump (52% to 47%) means Biden lost 28 Clinton points to Trump, a 56-point swing. If that was a stand-alone difference in a state or nationally, Trump might as well have campaigned against Pee Wee Hermann. After all, Herman and Biden both have sexual indiscretions to account for. (As does Trump, to be fair. As do most of us.)
But, Starr County, though the “most Latino” county, is not the county with the most Latino voters. For that, we have to look to Orange County (CA) with 4,915,287 Latino voters. In the same breath as I tell you that this number constitutes the second largest “city” in the country after New York and 25% larger than Los Angeles, I’ll remind everyone that Orange County comprises a couple dozen cities.
ORANGE COUNTY (CA)
While Clinton beat Trump in California 61% to 35%, she beat him only by nine points in Orange County, heavily latino and heavily Republican (therefore, so not surprising because of the second detail).
This year, Biden beat Trump by the same nine points, but their cumulative total was 99% of the votes. In 2016, Clinton and Trump totaled 93% (third party candidates accounted for the 7% remainder). For starters, I’m suspicious that third party candidates rose from 2.4% in 2012 to their much stronger results in 2016 (3x of 2012) to 2020, when Libertarian Jo Jorgensen did better nationally than any other Libertarian candidate ever but somehow under-performed Gary Johnson in Orange County in 2016.
In sum, Trump held his ground in the nation’s most populous Latino county.
One last test: how about the county with the most significant percentage increase in the Hispanic population between 1990 and 2018?
DIXON COUNTY (NE)
Dixon County sits just west of Sioux City, Iowa, and is a solidly red county.
Romney beat Obama in Dixon County 65% to 32%. Trump beat Clinton 73% to 20% in 2016, and he beat Biden 76% to 21% this year.
Certainly, we could speculate on other factors for Trump’s decisive win this year: voter turnout among Republicans; new or inactive voters; lack of viable third-party candidates — after all, Rosanne Barr wasn’t running again. (Jorgensen got 2% in Nebraska this year but not statistically reportable, 0%, in Dixon County.)
Once again, Trump continues his march onward with Latino voters as he has with black voters.
The Latino vote for Trump: disenfranchisement of minorities by the Democrat Party
When Biden and the Democrat Party cheated during this election, with the help of Communist-Socialist influences both within (BLM, Soros) and without (China), it disenfranchised millions of voters: whites, blacks, native peoples and latinos.
This is not unlike what happened in 2000, when blacks in Florida claimed to have been disenfranchised. Florida, by the way, leads the nation in disenfranchised voters, according to Human Rights Watch.
As a side note, one native Hawaiian wrote about her and other native peoples’ support of Trump, but the Navajo nation in Arizona for example went 97% for Biden. Yet, they themselves claim not to be a monolith. Because their disagreement with Trump is limited mainly to the wall along the Mexican border, this presents them as monolithic and invalidates their claim.
Stage Two “Logic Dysphoria”
It’s a quite serious thing for Biden supporters — or, more accurately, Trump haters — to ignore bellwether signs pointing not only to a Trump win in 2020 but also an overwhelming Trump Tsunami Landslide.
We will courageously continue our differential diagnosis to see whether Biden supporters are suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome, Logic Dysphoria, Mask-borne COVID, or some other potential fatal disease.
Until then, their only hope is our prayers and snarky tweets.